Josh Warrington vs Carl Frampton: Back a Majority Decision

PredictionOddsBookmaker
Frampton To Win on Points6/5Paddy Power
Frampton by Majority Decision12/1Ladbrokes

The fact the best bookmakers are offering odds as short as 4/11 on Josh Warrington v Carl Frampton going the distance tells you all you need to know about these two featherweight warriors.

In an era where extra merit is inexplicably given to a fighter’s unbeaten record, credit must go to undefeated IBF featherweight world champion Warrington for taking on the most difficult fight available upon his first defence.

All too often in boxing these days, freshly crowned champions and their matchmakers are too willing to savour their world champion status, handpicking opponents to ensure a safe defence or two.

Not Josh Warrington, though, who actually goes into his next fight as the bookmakers’ underdog despite being the champion, having outpointed Lee Selby in his last fight in May.

Ladbrokes go 7/4 on the 'Leeds Warrior' defending his belt, making Frampton the 4/9 favourite with the same bookies, though Paddy Power offer slightly better odds on the Belfast boxer at 1/2.

Even without Windsor Park as the setting, Frampton’s followers will arrive at the Manchester Arena in vast numbers, so much so that Leeds only being an hour up the road won’t do Warrington many favours.

Warrington v Frampton: Betting on the Scorecards

These two brawlers have great engines and great chins, so it would be wise to believe the bookmakers when they say this fight is going all the way.

In the Method of Victory odds, it’s still hard to find any value to get excited about. The best odds on Frampton to win on points is Paddy Power’s 6/5, but Warrington throws such a high volume of punches he’s surely going to be in with a shot on the cards.

Although I do believe Frampton will win on points, the 6/5 is a little too short for my liking, but Ladbrokes allow you to bet on the verdict with more precision and, thus, better odds.

They price a Unanimous Decision in favour of Frampton at 9/5 with Warrington 4/1 to once again prove his doubters wrong by securing a UD.

Officially, Warrington needed a split decision to beat Selby, but in truth he was dominant against the Welshman at Elland Road and should have earned a UD. Another SD win for Warrington is a massive 18/1 with Ladbrokes, while Coral go 8/1 that a Split Decision goes Frampton’s way.

I can see Warrington nicking enough rounds to make this a very competitive fight, particularly in the second-half of the 12 rounds when Frampton is typically weaker.

To these eyes, Frampton is a better, more experienced fighter and should build up an early lead, but Warrington won’t relent and will never stop chasing – and that’s why I like the odds on a Majority Decision.

Frampton to win a Majority Decision is a massive 12/1 at Ladbrokes. Given how many close – and in some cases dubious – scorecards we’ve seen in boxing this year, you could do a lot worse than those odds.

I’m similarly tempted by the 8/1 about Frampton pinching a split decision, while a draw is never out of the question these days at 20/1, but I think the favourite is too good to leave that much doubt that he’s the better boxer.

Stick with the 12/1 on a Frampton MD in what should be a bout fought at ferocious pace.

Any Chance of a Knockdown?

With just a 22% knockout percentage, Warrington has had doubts about his power thrown at him ever since he debuted in 2009.

His stoppage wins tend to come about via too many unanswered punches, rather than sparking his opponents out with power, and as such it’s a lengthy 6/1 (Paddy Power) for Frampton to be knocked down.

Detractors of Frampton will recall him twice hitting the canvas in an underwhelming points win over Alejandro Gonzalez Jr in 2015, but at that time ‘The Jackal’ was struggling with the super bantamweight limit and was caught napping in a bad round rather than particularly hurt.

Warrington is a solid body puncher though, so Frampton will need to be wary of that if he is to satisfy odds of 1/16 not to be knocked down.

As for Warrington’s chin, his supreme fitness and leg strength keeps him on his feet and even though Frampton packs plenty of power in his snappy shots, I wouldn’t be too convinced about Paddy Power’s 2/1 on the champion touching down.