|Patriots -2.5 over Rams||10/11||Bet365|
|Rams +0.5 in first quarter||20/31||Paddy Power|
|Shortest TD: Under 1.5 yards||8/11||Karamba|
|Rob Gronkowski most receiving yards||12/1||Bet365|
|Patriots to convert 4th down||8/11||Paddy Power|
The NFL Super Bowl 2019 is here. In just a few short days, the best teams from each conference will face off in Atlanta, Georgia, for the right to be the world champions. It’s time to make some cash. Here are my five best bets for Super Bowl LIII.
At Bet365, the Patriots are currently 2.5-point favourites at 10/11 over the NFC Champion Los Angeles Rams, and that seems right considering how well New England has played as of late. In their last three games, they are averaging 38.7 points per game and have won four of their previous five games.
While the Rams are surely a worthy opponent, it wouldn’t be a surprise if the stage was a little too big for Jared Goff, who has a career passer rating of just 78.9 in the playoffs. Ultimately, I like New England's experience, and I just can't seem to pick the young Goff over the greatest quarterback of all time in Tom Brady.
I expect this game to be close, as it is with every Patriots’ Super Bowl, but for New England to pull away in the fourth quarter.
Typically, the Patriots have started quite slow in the Super Bowl under Bill Belichick and Brady. In the eight Super Bowls they have appeared in together, they have scored a combined three points in the first quarter. Three!
The Rams, on the other hand, have been one of the league’s best teams at jumping out to a lead, averaging six points in the first quarter in 2018, fourth-most in the NFL. Expect New England to keep things close to the vest in the first quarter or so before opening up their offense.
While I like the Patriots to win this game, I’m taking the Rams +0.5 in the first quarter at 20/31 with Paddy Power.
One of my favourites bets for the Super Bowl each year is betting on the shortest touchdown to be scored. Last year, the “Philly Special” was the only touchdown that was scored from the one-yard line.
Given how high-powered these two offenses are, I expect both to be in the red zone quite often and for the under to hit once again. Take the under at 1.5 at 8/11 with Karamba, as I expect each team to get multiple cracks at scoring from the one-yard line.
One of the toughest bets on the board right now is “Most Receiving Yards,” as both teams are loaded with weapons. But my favourite “long shot” bet here is taking Rob Gronkowski at 12/1 with Bet365 to lead all receivers in yards.
While we certainly haven’t seen the usual “Gronk” this year, it wouldn’t be a surprise if New England was saving him for the playoffs, and there is no better time to use him than the Super Bowl.
Last year, Gronkowski dominated the Eagles in the Super Bowl, catching nine passes for 116 yards and two touchdowns. While I certainly don’t expect that type of performance again, it wouldn’t be a shock if he did have a big game after being sparingly used in the regular season.
Given how much Brady trusts him and his freakish ability, I’m willing to bet on the upside here and bet on Gronk to lead all receivers in yards.
If you are looking for a reasonably safe but fun bet, take the Patriots to convert a fourth down in the Super Bowl. Under Belichick, the Patriots have been one of the most aggressive teams in the league when going for it on fourth down, especially in the playoffs.
Against the Chiefs, the Patriots went for it twice on fourth down, and I expect that same level of aggressiveness from New England in the Super Bowl. In the Brady/Belichick era, they have gone for it on fourth down seven times, converting four.
Knowing that they will need to keep up with the Rams’ offense, I fully expect them to go for it at least once, with the odds being in their favor to convert. Take the Patriots to convert a fourth-down at 8/11 with Paddy Power.